Obi: The Dilemma To Change
Based on previous election statistics it is an obvious fact that to win the presidential election you will need at least 15 million votes. With 7 months to the presidential elections i doubt if 15 million people in this country knows who Peter Obi is or will be willing enough to shift their habitual PDP/APC voting stance.
The Labour Party needs numbers and money which APC speaks in few billions of it with the sales of forms alone.
Looking at numbers, there are about 176,846 polling units in Nigeria. Where APC and PDP can afford to have at least 2 party agents present at EVERY polling unit on Election Day to do their bidding. The LP or other political parties simply cannot. These party agents have to be paid, sheltered and fed. Looking at Nigeria Polity It’s not something that volunteering can fix. You will not find 176846 volunteers nationwide. To address these problems, we need money. Money to campaign. Yes, even Peter Obi must campaign and try to out campaign the two big political parties because they have far greater brand & name recognition. It doesn’t matter if the recognition is for bad things. They have it and they know they do.
The financial implications of the logistics of a presidential campaign and election are nightmarish. How much money does the LP have? The APC/PDP have a lot more. We watched -in real time how 23 people bought APC presidential forms and some people picked up forms for not party members lik GEJ and Femi Adesina (the president of AfDB) and both hassince distanced themselves from the race. With over 2.8 billion raised. It isn’t even a fraction of what’s in the APC coffers as the party in power at thhe national level. Same for the PDP whom have served 16 year before the APC.
Is Obi going to campaign with personal funds? (well, he can try) Where will the LP get this money from? (since they cant even boast of having state governor) The LP will also have to win some gubernatorial & National Assembly seats. They’re going to have to push Obi and at least a dozen other strong candidates in different positions nationwide simultaneously.
To take thhe game off APC/PDP households i will suggest a coalitions. The LP will have to merge with various regional parties like APGA, NNPP, KOWA, SDP, etc. Do that and you suddenly have a lot of party agents in a lot of places. You suddenly have more money(even if its not up to what APC alone has), you’re suddenly more recognisable. And add up aggrieved members of APC and PDP to your camp. This was how the APC was formed in the first place, coalitions & alliances.
Long story, cut short Obi and the LP must align with some of the same politicians & some of the same type of politics his supporters claim to detest so much.
Now a sacrastic reminder, All the other parties in the country combined couldn’t get close to as many votes as either the APC or the PDD. LP had five thousand votes. They’ll certainly have more this in 2023 but 15 million, looks like a tall dream.
We will need to sell our souls to the devil. It’s that simple. We will have to convince some PDP & APC [you have to weaken both] big names to come over or we will have to form a strategic alliance with the PDP. You might detest me the more by reading this and say i dont know what i am saying. Good. Politics in Nigerian is played by dirty politicians and its very difficult.
For Peter Obi or anyone else for that matter to say you want to send APC out of Aso rock or even be certain that Atiku is truely not the best option to replace Buhari in 2023, you should have started work since 2015, and not relent in effort till date. I am no political expert, i even just realise i cant win a poll against my wife with my children as voters, The only party that had come close is APGA. But even they can’t play at national level yet. And their house is dicipating
For the fresh blood to come, for that dream change to happen, for that Nigeria for all Nigerians to realy happen, it has to be from within the big 2.